Students occupying Taiwan government take to Reddit AMA＃太陽花學運在知名社群Reddit發聲 國外網友表示肯定

Students occupying Taiwan government take to Reddit AMA
占領台灣政府機關的學生們在Reddit AMA上發聲

The Sunflower Movement of students occupying Taiwan's national assembly have explained their goals in a Reddit Ask Me Anything session.
占領台灣國會的太陽花學運在國外知名社群網站Reddit的"儘管問"活動中解釋了他們的抗爭目標。

Sean Su，陳為廷，林于瑄，陳瑞光

Led by 25-year-old Lin Fei-Fan and 24-year-old Chen Wei-ting, protesters known as the Sunflower Movement survived early eviction attempts and have organised a peaceful occupation in the legislature building, complete with recycling bins and cameras broadcasting a live feed on Ustream.

Taking to Reddit, protest leaders laid out their objections to the trade deal, balancing cost-benefit figures of local GDP against economic and social independence from China, and registering general dissatisfaction with the government.

"You guys are so brave," says one Redditt user. "I'm a student and I couldn't even imagine overtaking a Taco Bell." Protestor Oliver Chen replies, "Ask most of us here a couple of months ago, and we would have probably said the same."

"But one day you realize that if you aren't willing to stand up for your country now, there might never be another chance. That's a pretty sobering thought."

由25歲的林飛帆和24歲的陳為廷所領導，太陽花學運在先前遭政府嘗試驅離後，仍持續進行和平占領國會的行動。抗爭者還利用資源回收桶及照相機在Ustream(註1)上做現場直播。

學運領導者讓議題延燒至Reddit，在此社群上闡述了他們反對服貿的理由；權衡分析該協議對台灣GDP帶來的成本效益及與中國在經濟、社會上獨立造成的影響；並且表達人民對政府的普遍不滿。

“你們真的很勇敢，”一名Reddit使用者評論。“我也是一個學生，但我連占領塔可鐘(註2)都不敢想”。抗議學生陳瑞光回應，“如果在幾個月前，我們之中大部分的人可能也會說一樣的話。"

“但有天你意識到，如果你現在不願為你的國家站出來，以後可能再也沒有機會了。這是非常值得深思的問題。“

註：

1. Ustream：於2007年3月建立，致力於提供一個通過網際網路進行個人在線音視頻廣播平台。現在此網站已經有多達兩百萬註冊用戶，每月產生多達一百五十萬小時的在線視頻和上百萬人次的觀看量。現已被中國大陸防火長城封鎖。在2008年美國總統競選期間，幾乎所有的候選人都使用過Ustream回答支持者的問題。
2. Taco Bell：塔可鐘是目前世界上規模最大的提供墨西哥式食品的連鎖餐飲品牌，隸屬於百勝全球餐飲集團。

本文僅供客觀參考，並不代表本站立場

本文節錄自CNET

文章連結 - http://www.cnet.com/news/students-occupying-taiwan-government-take-to-reddit-ama/

Three Scenarios That End Occupation Of Taiwan Parliament＃結束占領台灣國會的三種可能 《富比世》雜誌對服貿事件的預測

Three Scenarios That End Occupation Of Taiwan Parliament
結束占領台灣國會的三種可能

Ralph Jennings, Contributor

How then will the occupation end?

Here are three scenarios:

• Police force everyone out

Members of Taiwan’s ruling Nationalist Party, which has a majority in parliament, are talking to their main opposition on how to ratify the trade pact. MPs are open to an item-by-item review, the cancellation of which incited a break-in that got the occupation started. That review could strike clauses hurtful to Taiwanese businesses, sending the agreement back to negotiators from Taipei and Beijing for another round of talks. The pact as signed in June would open 80 service sector categories in China and just 64 here – part of Beijing’s image management offensive aimed at political reunification with Taiwan someday.

A vote on the trade agreement would need a podium clear of protesters. Groups who back the trade agreement despite fears of getting too cozy with old enemy China have threatened a showdown today with students in parliament. Taiwan’s president told a visiting US scholar Monday that the occupation is illegal and uncool in a democratic society.

These pressures would prompt legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng to issue a get-out deadline and call police on protesters who defy the order to be martyrs (pronounced “media celebs”) for a cause. Batons would bring blood, but hospitals are ready after the violent ouster March 23 of protesters from the cabinet headquarters.

Still, legislators worry about their images as elections are never far off. The parliament speaker has told students so far to take care of themselves, not to start packing up the banana peels and lunch boxes. “I don’t think Wang Jin-pyng will use police,” says Huang, who’s close to local politics. “He has his own way of thinking.” Odds: moderate

• Students leave by attrition

Whether it’s the crush of midterm exams this month, fatigue from sleeping on cardboard mats or frustration for lack of protest results, the students anchoring today’s occupation may find things more rewarding outside parliament. About 700 protesters are there at any one time, some at the podium and others in doorways. That’s down from thousands in the occupation’s first week and more than 100,000 street demonstrators for the same cause on Sunday.

Maybe we get a dip during mid-month exams. But a zero headcount is unlikely. People fresh out of the exam room can replace those headed in. It takes just a few dozen to command parliament’s podium. Odds: low

• Students relocate protest after deal with legislators

Protest leaders suddenly announce that (perhaps after exam season) they will move outside parliament to a venue that’s high profile but doesn’t obstruct government business. 

The relocation could follow a backroom deal between student protesters and legislators keen to shake off criticism from pro-trade pact people and law-and-order elements of the Nationalist Party leadership. Their handshake would save face for the students as they carry on the protest and for the legislators, who could get on with their agenda without being blamed for police clashes. Odds: moderate to high

那麼占領行動將如何結束？

有三種可能情形：

• 警方強行驅離

台灣的執政黨 － 國民黨黨員，在國會中佔多數席次，仍在和主要反對黨討論如何批准貿易協議。立法委員將開放逐條審查此協議，這也是引發闖入占領立院的導火線。這次審查可能刪除對台灣企業有害的條款，使台北與北京當局重新展開另一輪談判。這項於去年六月簽署的協議，中國將開放80類服務行業而台灣只開放64類 - 由北京的部分形象而言，旨在有天與台灣達成政治統一。

貿易協議的表決將需要一個沒有抗議者的講台；支持貿易協議的團體，儘管害怕和宿敵中國太過親近，仍於今日威脅與立院中的學生正面對決；台灣總統週一向來訪的美國學者表示，此占領行動在一個民主社會中是違法並且不夠冷靜沉著的舉動。

這些壓力將促使立法院長王金平發出最後通牒，要求警方對為理想公然違抗社會秩序的壯士們採取行動。警棍將帶來鮮血，但醫院自3月23日警方將抗議者從行政院暴力驅逐之後早已準備就緒。

然而，立法委員會顧慮形象，畢竟他們始終心繫選舉。立法院長至今仍呼籲學生們要照顧好自己，還不用開始打包香蕉皮及便當盒。“我不認為王金平會動員警力，”一名熟悉當地政治的黃姓人士說。“他有自己的想法。”機率：中等

• 學生戰力耗盡而離開

無論是遭到這個月的期中考擊潰、在紙板上久睡造成的疲勞或抗爭缺乏成效帶來的挫折，在這場占領行動堅持著的學生可能會發現立法院外有其他更具價值的事物。隨時有大約700名抗議者在院中待命，有些人在講台上有些在各出入口。相較於占領行動第一週的數千人，以及為同樣訴求於星期日上街頭抗議的十多萬人，人數已相對減少。

也許在期中考時人數會下降，但人去樓空的可能性不大，剛走出考場的人可以接替入場者。事實上要掌控立院講台只需數十人。機率：低

• 學生和立委協調後遷往別處繼續抗議

抗議活動的領導人突然宣布（也許在考季結束後），他們將移往另一個引人注目但不妨礙政府機能的場所繼續抗爭。
抗議的遷徙可能會依照學生和立法委員之間的幕後協議進行。這些立委渴望擺脫來自支持服貿者的批評，以及國民黨領導層要求維護法治的施壓。他們的握手言和將為雙方留下台階：學生可繼續抗爭，立委們則可繼續進行議程，不必因警察鎮壓而遭受譴責。機率：中度到高

本文僅供客觀參考，並不代表本站立場
本文節錄自《Forbes 富比世》雜誌
文章連結 - http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2014/04/01/three-scenarios-to-end-taiwan-protests-against-china-trade-pact/

Protests Won’t Undermine Taiwan’s Reputation #服貿 退回影響國際聲譽 日媒：純為誤導

Protests Won’t Undermine Taiwan’s Reputation
抗議並不會損害台灣國際聲譽

Claims that the Sunflower Movement will hurt Taiwan’s ability to join regional trade pacts are misguided.
宣稱太陽花運動將妨害台灣加入區域貿易協定純為誤導

In fact, states do often renegotiate treaties and usually there is a mechanism for such a procedure embedded in the treaty. The consequences are rarely as grave as is now being claimed. Ireland did not became an international outcast when it failed to approve the Lisbon treaty in a 2008 referendum and the Nice treaty in a 2001 referendum. In both cases, negotiations were opened again, changes were made and both treaties eventually entered into force.

In addition, the argument can be made that other democracies do understand the complexity of the ratification process, especially when it comes to free trade (or free trade-like) agreements. It is also likely that other governments would recognize that agreements with China are different than Taiwan’s dealings with other governments. The United States would hardly stop promoting Taiwan’s Trans-Pacific Partnership membership just because Taipei failed to ratify the CSSTA with China, nor would the failure to ratify the treaty deter Japan from entering into negotiations with Taiwan. In other words, Taiwan’s deals with China are not a reliable benchmark for measuring Taiwan’s reputation. It is hard to think that Taiwan’s partners are not aware of this.

Naturally, Beijing would hardly be pleased if CSSTA were ratified with some major changes. Likewise, it is certainly not pleased by the emergence of a civic movement that crosses party lines and aspires to hold the government accountable. This is especially true because Taiwan’s movement appears to be seen as a model in the increasingly restive Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, which Beijing is already struggling to control. If (and only if) the Sunflower Movement succeeds in pushing CSSTA back to the negotiation table, Beijing will face a certain dilemma: if it appears to retaliate, it will only confirm that protesters were right to suspect sinister intentions. Moreover, any future arrangement between Taipei and Beijing will be under very close public scrutiny. Maybe it is, after all, a better option for Ma (and Beijing) to appease public opposition and return to the negotiation table.

事實上，國家之間針對條約重新談判的情形經常發生，且條約中通常含有相關機制規範此程序。所造成的後果也很少如其現在宣稱的如此嚴重。愛爾蘭於2001年的及2008年的公民投票中依序否決了尼斯條約、里斯本條約(註1、2)的簽署，均未因此遭受國際間的排擠。在這兩起案例中，談判皆重新展開，條款重新修訂，兩條約最終仍合法生效。        
                                                                     
此外，該說法還有另一項爭議。其他民主國家應能了解條約批准過程的複雜性，尤其當牽涉到簽署自由貿易協定(或類似)。其他國家政府也很可能辨別得出，台灣與中國的協議和他們之間的並不相同；美國不會僅僅因為台灣未能批准兩岸服務貿易協議，便放棄支持台灣加入跨太平洋夥伴協定(TPP)，日本亦不會因此停止對台協商。換言之，台灣和中國的協議對於台灣的信譽並不是可靠的衡量標準，很難想像台灣的邦交國不會意識到這點。

當然，若服貿經部分重大修正而後批准，北京當局不可能為此感到高興。同樣地，對於一項民間運動的出現，跨越了黨派界限，並渴望向政府追究責任，其亦肯定大感不悅。特別是在台灣學運似乎被日益動盪的香港特別行政區視為民主典範，而北京對香港已努力加強掌控之時。如果（且唯有）太陽花學運成功將服貿推回談判桌，北京將必然面臨進退兩難的困境：若採取報復手段，只會證實抗爭者懷疑其圖謀不軌是正確的。並且，未來兩岸之間任何協議都將接受民眾嚴密的審查。也許對於馬總統（或北京當局）而言，較佳選擇仍舊是安撫大眾的反彈並返回談判桌。

註：

1. 尼斯條約（Treaty of Nice），全稱修改歐洲聯盟條約、建立歐洲各共同體諸條約和某些附件的尼斯條約（Treaty of Nice amending the Treaty on European Union, the Treaties establishing the European Communities and certain related acts），為歐盟歷史上的一個重要條約。2001年2月26日，歐盟會員國領導人正式簽署尼斯條約。2003年2月1日，尼斯條約正式施行。主要內容有，規定歐盟委員會委員數須少於２７名；在歐盟理事會表決票數分配上，規定了按成員國人口數目分配表決票數的基本原則，此外擴大了「有效多數制」的應用範圍，以提供歐盟決策效率。
2. 里斯本條約，又稱改革條約，是歐盟用以取代《歐盟憲法條約》的條約。里斯本條約已經在2007年12月13日為所有歐盟成員國簽署，並於2009年12月1日正式生效。里斯本條約旨在調整當前極需變革的歐盟在全球的角色、人權保障、歐盟決策機構效率，並針對全球氣候暖化、天然能源等政策，以提高歐盟全球競爭力和影響力。

• 本文僅供客觀參考，並不代表本站立場

本文節錄自日本《The Diplomat 外交官》雜誌 (報導亞太區域趨勢前線的國際時事)

文章連結 - http://thediplomat.com/2014/04/protests-wont-undermine-taiwans-reputation/

Manning the trade barriers #操控著貿易障礙 《經濟學人》關於 #服貿 最新報導

Manning the trade barriers
操控著貿易障礙

Students occupy Taiwan’s legislature in protest against a free-trade pact with China
學生占據台灣立法機構抗議與中國大陸簽署自由貿易協議

TAIWAN’S Legislative Yuan, the island’s parliament, is used to rumbustious scenes. But the occupation since March 18th of its main chamber by protesting students is unprecedented in the country’s nearly two decades of full democracy. The demonstrators, whose actions took many by surprise, want the government to scrap an agreement with China that would allow freer trade in services across the Taiwan Strait. They have displayed a large cartoon of President Ma Ying-jeou in the debating hall, portraying him as a Chinese pawn. The president is at the nadir of his popularity, while China struggles to win over public opinion in Taiwan. Signs of public sympathy with the students are growing.

The past few months have been particularly tough for Mr Ma, now nearly halfway through his second and final four-year term as president. In September he tried to expel a political rival in the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), Wang Jin-pyng, the legislature’s speaker, for alleged influence-peddling. But the move only served to highlight disunity within his party. On March 19th, a day after the students stormed into the legislature, a court in Taipei ruled in Mr Wang’s favour, allowing him to keep his party membership and thus his job. It was another embarrassment for the president, whom critics attempt to portray as an aloof patrician with an autocratic streak.

The agreement his government reached with China last June on removing barriers to cross-strait trade in services such as banking, e-commerce and health care is at the heart of many of Mr Ma’s image problems. Mr Ma sees the pact as a reward for the more conciliatory approach to China that he has adopted since he became president. The students occupying the legislature, as well as opposition parties who back them, claim that the trade deal will lead to an influx of Chinese businesses that will overwhelm Taiwanese competitors, threaten basic freedoms in areas such as publishing, and employ cheap mainland labour rather than Taiwanese. They accuse Mr Ma’s government of being overly secretive in negotiating its terms.

Three days after the students began their occupation, Mr Ma argued that failure by the legislature to approve the agreement “could have serious consequences” (see Banyan). Going back on the deal, he said, could result in Taiwan being “regarded as an unreliable trade partner” by China as well other countries with which the island wants to negotiate free-trade pacts. He denied the agreement would open Taiwan’s job market to Chinese workers and said the government would reimpose barriers if national security were ever at risk.

These arguments appear to convince neither the students nor many members of the public. Thousands have shown support for the occupation by rallying outside the building. A poll conducted on March 20th-21st by TVBS, a broadcaster often regarded as sympathetic to the KMT, found that nearly half of respondents supported the students’ action and opposed the trade pact. Only a fifth were in favour of the deal.

On March 23rd hundreds of students broke into the Taipei compound of the central government, and some used ladders to enter the offices. Police evicted them a few hours later using water cannon and batons in an operation that left dozens injured. Another TVBS poll found much less public support for this action by the students, though support for the continuing occupation of parliament remained high.

In parts of Asia students are seen to embody a country’s moral conscience. Mr Ma is careful not to condemn them outright.

China, meanwhile, tries to sound unperturbed by the commotion in Taipei. Global Times, a Beijing newspaper, called the student action a “typical piece of theatre”. Mr Ma, however, acknowledges that the problem is bigger. “Domestically,“ he says, “we have not yet reached a significant consensus on how we want to develop our relations with mainland China.” After six years of trying, Mr Ma can claim too little progress on this.  

台灣的立法院，這個島國的議會，對於喧鬧場面早已司空見慣。但在這個國家近二十年來的完全民主統治下，其大廳自3月18日遭抗議學生占領卻是史無前例的。這些行動令人意外的抗議民眾，希望政府取消與中國簽署海峽兩岸服務貿易自由化的協議。他們在立法院議廳展示了總統馬英九的大型卡通人像，影射他是中國的棋子。馬總統的支持度已跌到最低點，而中國方面則正在努力爭取贏得台灣民意。越來越多跡象顯示出大眾對學生的同情。

過去幾個月對馬總統先生而言處境特別艱難，他的第二次連任，也是最後一次四年一任的總統生涯，如今已將近走完了一半。去年9月，他試圖開除在(執政黨)國民黨中的政治競爭對手，被控涉及司法關說的立法院長王金平，但此舉只是凸顯出黨內的不合。3月19日，也就是學生們衝進立院一天後，台北地方法院做出對王有利的判決，讓他得以保留黨籍，也因此保住他的職位。這對馬總統而言又是另一個難堪的局面，批評者將他描繪成一位帶著專制色彩的孤傲貴族。

這項與中國在去年六月簽訂的協議，將解除海峽兩岸之間諸如銀行、電子商務和健保等服務業的貿易壁壘，是馬總統許多形象問題的重要關鍵。馬總統視該協議為中國給予的獎勵，因為自從他上任後對中國改以更為溫和的外交方式。占領立法院的學生們和支持他們的反對黨，聲稱此貿易協議將導致中國企業大量湧入，壓垮台灣競爭者；威脅人民各方面的基本自由，譬如出版；以及僱用大陸廉價勞力，取代台灣員工。他們指責馬政府對於協議的談判過程並未透明公開。

在學生的占領行動持續三天後，馬先生表示立法院若未批准該協議“可能造成嚴重後果”。背棄這項協議，他說，可能會導致中國或其他我國希望與其簽訂自由貿易協定的國家，將台灣"視為不可信賴的貿易夥伴”。他否認該協議將開放台灣就業市場給中國勞工，並表示如有任何影響國家安全之情事，政府將恢復實行貿易壁壘。

這些論點似乎既無說服學生也沒說服多少民眾，數千人在立法院外集會表示對占領行動的支持。由常被視為偏藍的TVBS於3月20日至21日進行的一項民意調查顯示，近一半的受訪者支持學生的行動並反對服貿，只有五分之一贊成這項協議。

3月23日數百名學生闖進了台北的中央政府機關(行政院)，其中一些人利用梯子闖入辦公室。警方在幾個小時後使用強力水柱和警棍將他們驅離，造成數十人受傷。另一項TVBS民調發現，民眾對於學生這次的行動較不贊成，但對持續占領立法院的支持度仍高居不下。

部分亞洲地區的學生被視為國家道德良知的體現，馬總統也很謹慎，並未直接譴責他們。

與此同時，中國大陸試圖對台北的騷動表現得泰然自若。北京的一家報社《環球時報》，稱這場學運為“典型的戲劇表演”。然而，馬總統承認事態可能更為嚴重。“在國內，”他說，“對於兩岸關係如何發展我們尚未達成顯著共識。”經過六年的努力，馬總統確實可以宣稱進展甚微。

• 本文僅供客觀參考，並不代表本站立場

本文節錄自 The Economist《經濟學人》
文章連結 - http://goo.gl/bu2qC5

For Taiwan's Embattled President, Awkward Similarities With Ukraine's Ousted Leader 《彭博商業周刊》關於 #服貿 的看法

For Taiwan's Embattled President, Awkward Similarities With Ukraine's Ousted Leader
身陷困境的台灣總統和遭推翻的烏克蘭領導人有著微妙相似之處

By Bruce Einhorn

After the events in Ukraine over the past month, the news from Taiwan feels eerily familiar. The turmoil takes place in a small country that has spent years living uncomfortably in the shadow of a major power—one with ambitions to recover territory lost during a humiliating period of weakness. The small country has a weak economy, and the government decides to push through a controversial deal to tie the small country’s prospects closer to its powerful neighbor. That move sparks outrage against the unpopular president, who has already faced criticism after the jailing of a popular opposition leader on corruption charges. The protests grow, turning violent as the embattled president orders security forces to break up the demonstrations.

Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou is not former Ukrainian leader Viktor Yanukovych—Ma, for one, doesn’t have an opulent home with seven limos, a private zoo, and a life-size galleon on a man-made lake—but as political unrest grows in Taiwan, the similarities between the two are striking. Just as Russians considered Crimea to be territory unjustly separated from Mother Russia, the Chinese government has insisted since the days of Mao Zedong that Taiwan is an inseparable part of the People’s Republic.

Both the Ukrainian and Taiwanese economies have suffered from disappointing growth, especially compared with more dynamic neighbors, and just as Yanukovych wanted to cement closer ties with Russia, Ma has been promoting a deal to liberalize trade and services with China. Yanukovych jailed former Premier Yulia Tymoshenko for a seven-year term, while Ma’s predecessor, former President Chen Shui-bian, is serving a 20-year sentence after being convicted on corruption charges in 2009.

Now the Taiwanese leader is quelling a student-led revolt against his attempt to ram through the legislature the services trade pact signed with the mainland last year. While lawmakers have dragged their feet on approving the agreement, Ma has called it a vital step in his efforts to revitalize the Taiwanese economy, which last year grew 2.95 percent, down from 3.85 percent in 2012. The deal would open banking, brokerages, e-commerce, and other sectors of the Taiwanese economy to investment from the mainland.

Critics say Ma’s government has reneged on a promise to do a line-by-line review of the agreement. The president isn’t compromising, and in the early hours of Monday riot police fired water cannons at protesters to clear them from the building in Taipei that is the headquarters for the cabinet. Police arrested about 60 people, Bloomberg News reports, and a total of 110 people—demonstrators and police officers—were injured. But the students still are occupying the legislature.

Fortunately for Ma, the Taiwanese economy isn’t as bad as Ukraine’s. Taiwan’s unemployment rate was just above 4 percent in February, down from about 6 percent in mid-2009. The picture for the economy this year is looking slightly better than it did at the end of 2013: Last month, the government raised its forecast for growth in 2014 to 2.82 percent, compared with an earlier forecast of 2.59 percent, and the government expects exports to increase 3.33 percent, better than the earlier forecast of 3.07 percent.

Still, even if Ma manages to quell the student-led revolt, the economic problems keep mounting. The government’s debt level has been expanding from 24.1 percent of GDP in early 2000s to 35.8 percent last year, according to a March 11 report from Bank of America (BAC) Merrill Lynch. That’s manageable compared withthe debt levels in other Asian countries, but “Taiwan’s pace of recent expansion, 40.6% debt limit, below-trend GDP growth and an aging population continue to cause growing concern about its fiscal condition,” wrote the bank’s Marcella Chow, who warns that total tax revenue as a percentage of GDP has dropped from about 17 percent in the 1990s to 12.6 percent last year. Moreover, according to Chow, “the government may encounter further tax revenue shortages with the tax burden growing at an even weaker pace.”

The weak economy is one reason Ma says Taiwan must move ahead with the China trade deal, despite the objections of the protesters. “Regional economic integration is an unstoppable global trend,” he said in a televised briefing. “The government can’t accept anyone impeding its ability to function by barging in and charging its buildings.”

With the occupation of the cabinet headquarters over, Ma seems to have the upper hand for now. But Yanukovych probably thought he was in control, too.

Students protesting against a China-Taiwan trade pact clash with riot police in Taipei, Taiwan, on March 24
3/24反服貿的學生和鎮暴警察發生衝突

在上個月烏克蘭發生的種種事件之後，如今台灣傳出的新聞竟有離奇相似之處。這項動亂發生在長年不適地居於強權陰影下的小國，而這個強國在歷經積弱不振的蒙羞歲月後始終抱持著收復領土的野心。小國經濟疲弱，他的政府決定通過一項爭議性協議，希望將其國家前景與強大的鄰國拉得更近，此舉引發人民對其總統的震怒。該國元首在以貪汙罪名將一位頗得民意的反對黨領袖送入大牢後，便遭輿論批評而民意支持度下降。當這位陷入困境的總統下令派遣安全部隊瓦解這場抗議活動，情勢惡化為暴動。

台灣總統馬英九和烏克蘭前任總統Viktor Yanukovych並不同。舉例而言，馬總統並未擁有奢華住家，其中還具備七輛大型豪華轎車、一個私人動物園以及一個停放一比一製作西班牙大帆船的人工湖。但當政治騷亂在台灣持續發酵，他們之間的相似處也變得引人注目。就像俄國人認為克里米亞國土和祖國俄羅斯分裂並不公正，大陸政府自毛澤東時代以來即堅持台灣為中華人民共和國不可分割的一部份。

烏克蘭和台灣經濟同樣成長低迷，尤其在與經濟活絡的鄰國比較時更加明顯。而當Yanukovych企圖加強與俄國的緊密聯繫，馬總統則希望推動一項開放與大陸服務貿易交流的協議。Yanukovych將前任總理Yulia Tymoshenko判處七年徒刑，而馬總統的前任總統，目前於獄中服刑的陳水扁先生，則於2009年以貪汙罪起訴，判刑20年。

因其試圖於立法院強行通過和大陸在去年簽署的服務貿易協議，這位台灣領導人目前正設法平息所引發的學運。當立法委員遲遲不肯通過該協議，馬總統宣稱這是作為他努力振興台灣經濟的一個重要決策。台灣經濟於去年成長了2.95%，低於2012年的3.85%。這項協議將開放大陸投資台灣的銀行業、證卷商、電子商務及其他行業。

批評者表示馬政府背叛了逐條審查該協議的承諾，但總統並未表示讓步，並於星期一凌晨派遣鎮暴警察，以強力水柱將抗議民眾由臺北內閣總部（行政院）驅離。據彭博新聞報導，警察逮捕了約60人，而包含抗議者和警員在內，總共造成110人受傷。但學生們目前仍占據立法院。
                               
對馬總統而言值得慶幸的是，臺灣的經濟並未和烏克蘭一樣糟。臺灣2009年中旬的失業率大約為6 %，據二月份統計已經降低，僅稍高於4%。今年的經濟前景預估將比去年年底有更好的表現：就在上個月，臺灣政府將對今年經濟成長率的預測，由之前的2.59%上修至2.82%；出口則可望增加3.33%，高於之前預測的3.07%。

然而，即使馬總統真的成功平息這場學運，經濟問題仍在持續增加。根據美國銀行/美林證券(註)今年3/11的一項報告指出，台灣政府的負債水平在21世紀初占GDP 24.1%，去年已上升至35.8%。和其他亞洲國家相比，這樣的負債水平仍算是可以應付的。但"台灣近來經濟成長步伐、40.6%的債務上限、低於趨勢水準的GDP成長和人口老化都將持續引發對其財務狀況的擔憂"，美國銀行的Marcella Chow寫道。他同時也提出警告，台灣的稅收總額占GDP百分比已由90年代的17%，降至去年的12.6%。此外，據他所言，"隨著國家稅負成長腳步更加緩慢，台灣政府可能會遭遇進一步的稅收短缺"。

這樣孱弱的經濟體質，是馬總統表示台灣必須和中國大陸簽署貿易協議的理由之一，儘管抗議民眾並不認同。"區域性的經濟整合是無法阻擋的全球趨勢，"他在記者會中提到："政府不允許任何藉由闖入、進攻國家機關，妨礙國家運作之行為。"

隨著占領行政院事件落幕，馬總統現在看來似乎占了上風，但Yanukovych當時可能也以為他已掌控了全局。

註：
美林證券（Merrill Lynch）是世界最大的證券零售商和投資銀行之一，總部位於美國紐約市。目前，美林集團在世界超過40個國家經營，為個人、機構投資者和政府客戶提供多元化的金融服務：除了傳統的投資銀行和經紀業務外，還包括共同基金、保險、信託、年金和清算服務。作為世界的最大的金融管理諮詢公司之一，它在財務世界裡佔有一席之地。2008年9月14日，美國銀行與美林達成協議，將以約440億美元收購後者。

• 本文僅供客觀參考，並不代表本站立場

本文來自Bloomberg Businessweek 彭博商業周刊
文章連結 http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-24/for-taiwans-embattled-president-awkward-similarities-with-ukraines-ousted-leader

Taiwan’s “Occupy” Movement Teeters between Peace and Violence # 美國《科學人》雜誌對於服貿的看法

Taiwan’s “Occupy” Movement Teeters between Peace and Violence
台灣的"占領運動"擺盪於和平與暴力之間

By Sandra Upson

In the biggest student-led protest in Taiwan’s history, an estimated 10,000 people have surrounded government buildings in Taipei in opposition to an impending trade deal with mainland China. The movement began spontaneously, when hundreds of protestors seized control of Taiwan’s main legislative building last Tuesday night. On Sunday evening the clashes escalated, with several dozen people injured in skirmishes between police and activists who had stormed the Executive Yuan, which houses the Cabinet.

Yet when I visited the protests on Saturday, I was struck by the extraordinary civility and peacefulness on display. The students, professors and other supporters sat in neat rows in the streets flanking the occupied legislative building. Many attendees carried sunflowers, a salute to the event’s nickname, the Sunflower Movement.

Protesters here are objecting to a move by Taiwan’s leading party to skip an itemized review of the trade agreement, as had been promised. The new pact would open up Taiwan’s service sector to Chinese investment, raising fears that the mainland will increase its leverage over the island. Businesses in the service sector make up almost 70 percent of Taiwan’s economy. Some protesters oppose the pact entirely, whereas others object to the way the government is pushing it forward without a public review.

The deal comes on the heels of a half-decade of warming relations between the Taiwanese government and mainland China. Only in 2008 did Taiwan begin to allow direct travel, trade and postal connections with China. Previously, all such links were routed through a third party, often Hong Kong. To get just a taste of Taiwan’s historically fierce protection of its sovereignty from China, consider that it only permits ten mainland films to be released in the island per year, a quota applied exclusively to its neighbor across the strait. This trade agreement will likely increase that figure.

On Saturday, the thousands upon thousands of young Taiwanese people sitting in the streets were quiet and friendly. Volunteers amiably but firmly kept walkways clear around the site. Upon exiting a port-a-potty, you could expect to find a volunteer offering to pour bottled water over your hands. Nearby businesses offered free snacks.

Protesters who had entered the legislative building were sitting on its roof and peering out its windows. Police maintained a very low profile—the most visible presence was at the Executive Yuan, around the corner, where several tiers of barbed wire stood between the police and pedestrians. Thorny fencing also guarded parts of the legislative building, but to less effect. Here, protestors had wrapped cushioning around the sharp edges and tucked sunflowers between its wires.

在這場臺灣史上規模最大、由學生帶領的抗議活動，將近一萬人在臺北包圍了政府機構，為的是反對即將和中國大陸簽署的貿易協議。這次的抗議活動是自發性的，事件始於上星期二晚間，數百名抗議群眾攻占臺灣的中央立法機關。星期日晚上抗議情勢升溫，警方和突襲行政院(內閣)的抗議人民數度爆發肢體衝突，造成數十人受傷。

然而當我星期六來到抗議現場時，民眾的文明舉止以及在場的平和氛圍令我為之震撼。這些學生、教授和其他支持者一排排整齊的靜坐在立法院的兩側街道上。其中許多參加者帶著太陽花，象徵對這場"太陽花學運"的致敬。

抗議的起因為台灣執政黨並未依照先前承諾，直接跳過對此貿易協議逐條審查的程序。這項協議將開放大陸投資台灣的服務業，引起民間的恐慌，深怕此舉會提高大陸對台灣的影響力，因為服務業幾乎佔台灣GDP(國內生產毛額)70%左右(註1)。部分抗議人士堅決反對此協議，有些人則是反對政府黑箱作業強行通過的方式。

大約五年前兩岸關係較為溫和後該協議即達成(註2)，但直到2008年台灣才開放和中國大陸在旅遊、貿易、郵政上的直接往來。在這之前，所有這些相關交流皆須透過第三方管道協助，通常由香港媒合。如欲明白台灣多年來捍衛其國家主權至何程度，從其每年只允許十部大陸電影在台發行便可略知一二。這樣的額度是位於對岸的鄰國所獨享的，若此貿易協定通過則有提高的可能。

星期六那天，數以萬計在街頭席地而坐的台灣青年是平靜而友善的。志願者親切而堅定地維護抗議現場附近人行道的暢通，甚至當你由流動廁所走出時，他們會用瓶裝水幫你洗手。附近還有商家免費提供小吃。

進入立法院的抗爭者有些人坐在屋頂上，有些窺視著窗外。警方行事仍保持低調－唯一顯眼的只有在行政院附近，將行人和警力層層隔開的鐵絲網。立法院周邊也有部分架設拒馬，但效果不彰。抗議民眾將其尖銳部分包裹住，並在鐵絲網點綴上太陽花。

註：

1. Taiwan GDP = agriculture 農業 2%，industry 工業 29.4%，services 服務業 68.6% (2013 est.) (資料來自CIA)
2. Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (海峽兩岸服務貿易協議) is a major follow up of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議，ECFA) signed on 29 June 2010 in Chongqing. 服貿從屬於2010.6.29在大陸重慶省簽訂的ECFA (Wikipedia)

• 本文僅供客觀參考，並不代表本站立場

此評論刊登於美國《科學人》雜誌 (Scientific American)
文章連結 http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2014/03/24/taiwans-occupy-movement-teeters-between-peace-and-violence/