2014年4月2日 星期三

Three Scenarios That End Occupation Of Taiwan Parliament#結束占領台灣國會的三種可能 《富比世》雜誌對服貿事件的預測

Three Scenarios That End Occupation Of Taiwan Parliament

Ralph Jennings, Contributor
How then will the occupation end?

Here are three scenarios:

  • Police force everyone out

Members of Taiwan’s ruling Nationalist Party, which has a majority in parliament, are talking to their main opposition on how to ratify the trade pact. MPs are open to an item-by-item review, the cancellation of which incited a break-in that got the occupation started. That review could strike clauses hurtful to Taiwanese businesses, sending the agreement back to negotiators from Taipei and Beijing for another round of talks. The pact as signed in June would open 80 service sector categories in China and just 64 here – part of Beijing’s image management offensive aimed at political reunification with Taiwan someday.

A vote on the trade agreement would need a podium clear of protesters. Groups who back the trade agreement despite fears of getting too cozy with old enemy China have threatened a showdown today with students in parliament. Taiwan’s president told a visiting US scholar Monday that the occupation is illegal and uncool in a democratic society.

These pressures would prompt legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng to issue a get-out deadline and call police on protesters who defy the order to be martyrs (pronounced “media celebs”) for a cause. Batons would bring blood, but hospitals are ready after the violent ouster March 23 of protesters from the cabinet headquarters.

Still, legislators worry about their images as elections are never far off. The parliament speaker has told students so far to take care of themselves, not to start packing up the banana peels and lunch boxes. “I don’t think Wang Jin-pyng will use police,” says Huang, who’s close to local politics. “He has his own way of thinking.” Odds: moderate

  • Students leave by attrition

Whether it’s the crush of midterm exams this month, fatigue from sleeping on cardboard mats or frustration for lack of protest results, the students anchoring today’s occupation may find things more rewarding outside parliament. About 700 protesters are there at any one time, some at the podium and others in doorways. That’s down from thousands in the occupation’s first week and more than 100,000 street demonstrators for the same cause on Sunday.

Maybe we get a dip during mid-month exams. But a zero headcount is unlikely. People fresh out of the exam room can replace those headed in. It takes just a few dozen to command parliament’s podium. Odds: low

  • Students relocate protest after deal with legislators

Protest leaders suddenly announce that (perhaps after exam season) they will move outside parliament to a venue that’s high profile but doesn’t obstruct government business. 

The relocation could follow a backroom deal between student protesters and legislators keen to shake off criticism from pro-trade pact people and law-and-order elements of the Nationalist Party leadership. Their handshake would save face for the students as they carry on the protest and for the legislators, who could get on with their agenda without being blamed for police clashes. Odds: moderate to high



  • 警方強行驅離

台灣的執政黨 - 國民黨黨員,在國會中佔多數席次,仍在和主要反對黨討論如何批准貿易協議。立法委員將開放逐條審查此協議,這也是引發闖入占領立院的導火線。這次審查可能刪除對台灣企業有害的條款,使台北與北京當局重新展開另一輪談判。這項於去年六月簽署的協議,中國將開放80類服務行業而台灣只開放64類 - 由北京的部分形象而言,旨在有天與台灣達成政治統一。




  • 學生戰力耗盡而離開



  • 學生和立委協調後遷往別處繼續抗議


本文節錄自《Forbes 富比世》雜誌
文章連結 - http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2014/04/01/three-scenarios-to-end-taiwan-protests-against-china-trade-pact/
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