Three Scenarios That End Occupation Of Taiwan Parliament
結束占領台灣國會的三種可能
Ralph Jennings, Contributor
Here are three scenarios:
- Police force everyone out
Members of Taiwan’s ruling Nationalist Party, which has a majority in parliament, are talking to their main opposition on how to ratify the trade pact. MPs are open to an item-by-item review, the cancellation of which incited a break-in that got the occupation started. That review could strike clauses hurtful to Taiwanese businesses, sending the agreement back to negotiators from Taipei and Beijing for another round of talks. The pact as signed in June would open 80 service sector categories in China and just 64 here – part of Beijing’s image management offensive aimed at political reunification with Taiwan someday.
A vote on the trade agreement would need a podium clear of protesters. Groups who back the trade agreement despite fears of getting too cozy with old enemy China have threatened a showdown today with students in parliament. Taiwan’s president told a visiting US scholar Monday that the occupation is illegal and uncool in a democratic society.
These pressures would prompt legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng to issue a get-out deadline and call police on protesters who defy the order to be martyrs (pronounced “media celebs”) for a cause. Batons would bring blood, but hospitals are ready after the violent ouster March 23 of protesters from the cabinet headquarters.
Still, legislators worry about their images as elections are never far off. The parliament speaker has told students so far to take care of themselves, not to start packing up the banana peels and lunch boxes. “I don’t think Wang Jin-pyng will use police,” says Huang, who’s close to local politics. “He has his own way of thinking.” Odds: moderate
- Students leave by attrition
Whether it’s the crush of midterm exams this month, fatigue from sleeping on cardboard mats or frustration for lack of protest results, the students anchoring today’s occupation may find things more rewarding outside parliament. About 700 protesters are there at any one time, some at the podium and others in doorways. That’s down from thousands in the occupation’s first week and more than 100,000 street demonstrators for the same cause on Sunday.
Maybe we get a dip during mid-month exams. But a zero headcount is unlikely. People fresh out of the exam room can replace those headed in. It takes just a few dozen to command parliament’s podium. Odds: low
- Students relocate protest after deal with legislators
Protest leaders suddenly announce that (perhaps after exam season) they will move outside parliament to a venue that’s high profile but doesn’t obstruct government business.
The relocation could follow a backroom deal between student protesters and legislators keen to shake off criticism from pro-trade pact people and law-and-order elements of the Nationalist Party leadership. Their handshake would save face for the students as they carry on the protest and for the legislators, who could get on with their agenda without being blamed for police clashes. Odds: moderate to high
那麼占領行動將如何結束？
有三種可能情形：
- 警方強行驅離
台灣的執政黨 － 國民黨黨員，在國會中佔多數席次，仍在和主要反對黨討論如何批准貿易協議。立法委員將開放逐條審查此協議，這也是引發闖入占領立院的導火線。這次審查可能刪除對台灣企業有害的條款，使台北與北京當局重新展開另一輪談判。這項於去年六月簽署的協議，中國將開放80類服務行業而台灣只開放64類 - 由北京的部分形象而言，旨在有天與台灣達成政治統一。
貿易協議的表決將需要一個沒有抗議者的講台；支持貿易協議的團體，儘管害怕和宿敵中國太過親近，仍於今日威脅與立院中的學生正面對決；台灣總統週一向來訪的美國學者表示，此占領行動在一個民主社會中是違法並且不夠冷靜沉著的舉動。
這些壓力將促使立法院長王金平發出最後通牒，要求警方對為理想公然違抗社會秩序的壯士們採取行動。警棍將帶來鮮血，但醫院自3月23日警方將抗議者從行政院暴力驅逐之後早已準備就緒。
然而，立法委員會顧慮形象，畢竟他們始終心繫選舉。立法院長至今仍呼籲學生們要照顧好自己，還不用開始打包香蕉皮及便當盒。“我不認為王金平會動員警力，”一名熟悉當地政治的黃姓人士說。“他有自己的想法。”機率：中等
- 學生戰力耗盡而離開
無論是遭到這個月的期中考擊潰、在紙板上久睡造成的疲勞或抗爭缺乏成效帶來的挫折，在這場占領行動堅持著的學生可能會發現立法院外有其他更具價值的事物。隨時有大約700名抗議者在院中待命，有些人在講台上有些在各出入口。相較於占領行動第一週的數千人，以及為同樣訴求於星期日上街頭抗議的十多萬人，人數已相對減少。
也許在期中考時人數會下降，但人去樓空的可能性不大，剛走出考場的人可以接替入場者。事實上要掌控立院講台只需數十人。機率：低
- 學生和立委協調後遷往別處繼續抗議
抗議活動的領導人突然宣布（也許在考季結束後），他們將移往另一個引人注目但不妨礙政府機能的場所繼續抗爭。
抗議的遷徙可能會依照學生和立法委員之間的幕後協議進行。這些立委渴望擺脫來自支持服貿者的批評，以及國民黨領導層要求維護法治的施壓。他們的握手言和將為雙方留下台階：學生可繼續抗爭，立委們則可繼續進行議程，不必因警察鎮壓而遭受譴責。機率：中度到高
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本文節錄自《Forbes 富比世》雜誌
文章連結 - http://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2014/04/01/three-scenarios-to-end-taiwan-protests-against-china-trade-pact/
