Solomon Wolf＃譯視‧傳思: Manning the trade barriers #操控著貿易障礙《經濟學人》關於 #服貿最新報導

Manning the trade barriers
操控著貿易障礙

Students occupy Taiwan’s legislature in protest against a free-trade pact with China
學生占據台灣立法機構抗議與中國大陸簽署自由貿易協議

TAIWAN’S Legislative Yuan, the island’s parliament, is used to rumbustious scenes. But the occupation since March 18th of its main chamber by protesting students is unprecedented in the country’s nearly two decades of full democracy. The demonstrators, whose actions took many by surprise, want the government to scrap an agreement with China that would allow freer trade in services across the Taiwan Strait. They have displayed a large cartoon of President Ma Ying-jeou in the debating hall, portraying him as a Chinese pawn. The president is at the nadir of his popularity, while China struggles to win over public opinion in Taiwan. Signs of public sympathy with the students are growing.

The past few months have been particularly tough for Mr Ma, now nearly halfway through his second and final four-year term as president. In September he tried to expel a political rival in the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), Wang Jin-pyng, the legislature’s speaker, for alleged influence-peddling. But the move only served to highlight disunity within his party. On March 19th, a day after the students stormed into the legislature, a court in Taipei ruled in Mr Wang’s favour, allowing him to keep his party membership and thus his job. It was another embarrassment for the president, whom critics attempt to portray as an aloof patrician with an autocratic streak.

The agreement his government reached with China last June on removing barriers to cross-strait trade in services such as banking, e-commerce and health care is at the heart of many of Mr Ma’s image problems. Mr Ma sees the pact as a reward for the more conciliatory approach to China that he has adopted since he became president. The students occupying the legislature, as well as opposition parties who back them, claim that the trade deal will lead to an influx of Chinese businesses that will overwhelm Taiwanese competitors, threaten basic freedoms in areas such as publishing, and employ cheap mainland labour rather than Taiwanese. They accuse Mr Ma’s government of being overly secretive in negotiating its terms.

Three days after the students began their occupation, Mr Ma argued that failure by the legislature to approve the agreement “could have serious consequences” (see Banyan). Going back on the deal, he said, could result in Taiwan being “regarded as an unreliable trade partner” by China as well other countries with which the island wants to negotiate free-trade pacts. He denied the agreement would open Taiwan’s job market to Chinese workers and said the government would reimpose barriers if national security were ever at risk.

These arguments appear to convince neither the students nor many members of the public. Thousands have shown support for the occupation by rallying outside the building. A poll conducted on March 20th-21st by TVBS, a broadcaster often regarded as sympathetic to the KMT, found that nearly half of respondents supported the students’ action and opposed the trade pact. Only a fifth were in favour of the deal.

On March 23rd hundreds of students broke into the Taipei compound of the central government, and some used ladders to enter the offices. Police evicted them a few hours later using water cannon and batons in an operation that left dozens injured. Another TVBS poll found much less public support for this action by the students, though support for the continuing occupation of parliament remained high.

In parts of Asia students are seen to embody a country’s moral conscience. Mr Ma is careful not to condemn them outright.

China, meanwhile, tries to sound unperturbed by the commotion in Taipei. Global Times, a Beijing newspaper, called the student action a “typical piece of theatre”. Mr Ma, however, acknowledges that the problem is bigger. “Domestically,“ he says, “we have not yet reached a significant consensus on how we want to develop our relations with mainland China.” After six years of trying, Mr Ma can claim too little progress on this.

台灣的立法院，這個島國的議會，對於喧鬧場面早已司空見慣。但在這個國家近二十年來的完全民主統治下，其大廳自3月18日遭抗議學生占領卻是史無前例的。這些行動令人意外的抗議民眾，希望政府取消與中國簽署海峽兩岸服務貿易自由化的協議。他們在立法院議廳展示了總統馬英九的大型卡通人像，影射他是中國的棋子。馬總統的支持度已跌到最低點，而中國方面則正在努力爭取贏得台灣民意。越來越多跡象顯示出大眾對學生的同情。

過去幾個月對馬總統先生而言處境特別艱難，他的第二次連任，也是最後一次四年一任的總統生涯，如今已將近走完了一半。去年9月，他試圖開除在(執政黨)國民黨中的政治競爭對手，被控涉及司法關說的立法院長王金平，但此舉只是凸顯出黨內的不合。3月19日，也就是學生們衝進立院一天後，台北地方法院做出對王有利的判決，讓他得以保留黨籍，也因此保住他的職位。這對馬總統而言又是另一個難堪的局面，批評者將他描繪成一位帶著專制色彩的孤傲貴族。

這項與中國在去年六月簽訂的協議，將解除海峽兩岸之間諸如銀行、電子商務和健保等服務業的貿易壁壘，是馬總統許多形象問題的重要關鍵。馬總統視該協議為中國給予的獎勵，因為自從他上任後對中國改以更為溫和的外交方式。占領立法院的學生們和支持他們的反對黨，聲稱此貿易協議將導致中國企業大量湧入，壓垮台灣競爭者；威脅人民各方面的基本自由，譬如出版；以及僱用大陸廉價勞力，取代台灣員工。他們指責馬政府對於協議的談判過程並未透明公開。

在學生的占領行動持續三天後，馬先生表示立法院若未批准該協議“可能造成嚴重後果”。背棄這項協議，他說，可能會導致中國或其他我國希望與其簽訂自由貿易協定的國家，將台灣"視為不可信賴的貿易夥伴”。他否認該協議將開放台灣就業市場給中國勞工，並表示如有任何影響國家安全之情事，政府將恢復實行貿易壁壘。

這些論點似乎既無說服學生也沒說服多少民眾，數千人在立法院外集會表示對占領行動的支持。由常被視為偏藍的TVBS於3月20日至21日進行的一項民意調查顯示，近一半的受訪者支持學生的行動並反對服貿，只有五分之一贊成這項協議。

3月23日數百名學生闖進了台北的中央政府機關(行政院)，其中一些人利用梯子闖入辦公室。警方在幾個小時後使用強力水柱和警棍將他們驅離，造成數十人受傷。另一項TVBS民調發現，民眾對於學生這次的行動較不贊成，但對持續占領立法院的支持度仍高居不下。

部分亞洲地區的學生被視為國家道德良知的體現，馬總統也很謹慎，並未直接譴責他們。

與此同時，中國大陸試圖對台北的騷動表現得泰然自若。北京的一家報社《環球時報》，稱這場學運為“典型的戲劇表演”。然而，馬總統承認事態可能更為嚴重。“在國內，”他說，“對於兩岸關係如何發展我們尚未達成顯著共識。”經過六年的努力，馬總統確實可以宣稱進展甚微。